'Don't play the American game... India is too big for a US game.'
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. In contrast, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
The domestic stock market this week would monitor the geopolitical developments after India and Pakistan reached an understanding to stop military actions, analysts said. Moreover, macroeconomic data announcements, Q4 earnings, trading activity of foreign investors and global market trends are also likely to influence sentiments, traders said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his upcoming visit to India in December and expressed his intention to address the trade imbalance between the two countries, particularly concerning India's crude oil imports from Russia. He also lauded India's independent stance on international issues and highlighted the strong relationship between the two nations.
'While investors believe in India's long-term growth story and resilience amid global uncertainty, they see near-term risks around the direction of a global trade war.'
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
The Asia Cup 2025 had been simmering with tension from the very first India-Pakistan encounter, and by the time the final arrived, the animosity had reached boiling point.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained GDP growth forecast of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, lower than the 7.6 per cent expansion estimated for FY24. In its February monetary policy, the RBI had projected the GDP growth rate of 7 per cent for the financial year beginning April 1. Announcing the current fiscal's first bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the rural demand is gathering pace, and sustained growth in manufacturing sector should boost private investment.
'$125 million for the hull and the remaining of over $350 million for liability.'
'New Delhi is not naive about its foreign policy choices.'
Container prices have shot up by up to 300 per cent in the past one month owing to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran following the former's attack on Hamas, causing shortages and pushing consumer durables companies to increase prices. Companies have planned increases but some are yet to decide on the extent of the increase.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday expressed hope that India will conclude the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US by the fall or November this year. He said that "a little bit" of geopolitical issues overtook the trade matters in the negotiations for the pact between the two countries.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the hostilities between India and Pakistan heighten risks to the credit metrics of both countries, and any escalation in clashes would put downward pressure on sovereign credit support.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
'What's currently underway is not a 'reset'.' 'What needs to be arrived at is a new balance.'
'The border deal offers a hedge for India against Trump's unpredictability when it comes to his approach to competition with China.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
Trade, defence cooperation and regional strategy had long formed the backbone of India-US ties, but the latest rift shows how quickly those pillars can be shaken by personal grievances and political optics.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled lower for the sixth straight session on Monday due to heavy selling in bellwether stocks including HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries amid mixed trends in the global markets and outflow of foreign funds. Falling for the sixth consecutive session, the BSE Sensex tumbled 638.45 points or 0.78 per cent to settle at 81,050. During the day, it plummeted 962.39 points or 1.17 per cent to 80,726.06. The NSE Nifty slumped 218.85 points or 0.87 per cent to end at 24,795.75.
The two sides are set to face each other in the semi-finals of the ongoing World Championship of Legends (WCL), but deepening diplomatic strains and strong public sentiment in India have cast serious doubt on whether the match will actually take place.
As India and China continue to face off across the Himalayas six decades later, the echoes of that earlier conflict remain unmistakable. The core of China's sensitivity lies not in maps or mountain passes, but in its perception of sovereignty over Tibet, points out Dr Kumar.
Job creation, improving farm productivity, and mobilising public funds for infrastructure development were some of the issues that figured during the interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and economists ahead of the 2025-26 Union Budget. The prime minister on Tuesday met eminent economists and sectoral experts at NITI Aayog to hear their views and suggestions for the upcoming Budget. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Budget for 2025-26 in the Lok Sabha on February 1, 2025.
For investors who missed the initial IPO frenzy, the market correction is an opportunity to selectively invest in promising names, but patience and careful evaluation remain the key.
The next many decades belong to India as the global economic powerhouse, and it will be essential to continue demonstrating policy stability, as the country aspires to be the world's manufacturing hub, Maruti Suzuki India MD and CEO Hisashi Takeuchi said on Friday.
Investors are reluctant to take long-term positions this year after the spectacular gains in 2023. The delivery-based trades on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have declined to below 36 per cent this year from an average of 38.1 per cent in 2023. Investors tend to seek delivery for stocks where they see a long-term investment opportunity or tactical positional trade.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
Employers in India are planning to outpace global adoption in certain future technologies as companies operating in the country are heavily investing in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), energy technologies, robotics, and autonomous systems, said the World Economic Forum (WEF) in its latest "Future of Jobs" report released on Wednesday. The report, released days before the WEF annual meeting in Davos from January 20-25, notes that 35 per cent employers in India think that adopting semiconductors and computing technologies (compared to 20 per cent globally) will transform their operations while 21 per cent employers think that adopting quantum and encryption technologies (compared to 12 per cent globally) will also transform their operations.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
'Even if tariffs are reduced, non-tariff may still remain a challenge.'
A veterans' cricket match involving India and Pakistan in the World Championship of Legends in London on Sunday has been cancelled after Indian players, including Shikhar Dhawan, refused to be a part of it citing the Pahalgam terror attack in April.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
Lee Jae-myung's decisive victory in South Korea's snap presidential election marks a major political shift driven by public backlash against authoritarian, with significant implications for domestic reform and the future of the US-South Korea alliance, observes Dr Rajaram Panda.
